Note: I am currently not planning to sell this trading system. But it is not a closed isssue. If your are interested in possibly buying this system when it is finished, or autotrading it through a broker, send me an email. Please use TideTrader2 with no spaces as the subject.     [ Email to Al ]

Tide Trader 2 is an automated trading system that uses knowledge of the MoonTrend to trade the several day swings in the S&P eMini.
MoonTrend is a longer term Moon cycle caused by the Moon moving through the signs of the zodiac. MoonTrend measures the effect of this motion on prices.

The yellow line on the chart is the MoonTrend. This is the measured effect of the Moon on the market, found with a special filter. This filter tunes into something physical, so this trading system is based on the theory that the Moon moves the market, and will continue to do so. Once the MoonTrend has turned enough, the trend is confirmed, and trades are made in the direction of the trend.

The chart above shows the last 3 months.

TideTrader 2 does not carry anything overnight. It covers at 4:00 PM Eastern and re-enters is the direction of the swing the next day at 9:36 Eastern. The stop is 5.75 points. It covers any 20 point gain. If the day's first try is stopped out, it waits for a reveral signal. These signals only come about 10% of the time.

Tide Trader 2 has been back tested for more than the past year. Over time, it makes about 1/3 the profit of the MoonTide hotline, but it requires no work. It makes 1.15 trades per day, which makes it easy for a broker to autotrade. Entry is make just after the open, and the position is held until stopped out or on the close. Occasionally, the system will signal a trade entry during the day, which must be taken in real time. A visual indicator warning of this impending entry is available for easy monitoring.
Of course, no guarantee can be made that TideTrader 2 will continue to perform as tested. I have posted it here merely as an aid to your trading. Consider this an "out of sample forward test".

The chart for the last year is shown below. It includes a plot of the equity, and trade statistics. Since this is a trend following system, the percentage of wins (normally near 50%) is good, especially since the S&P only trends 49% of the time. Kaufman says anything over 40% is good.

In this real time simulation, equity is assumed to initially be $5000, a very small account. Commissions plus fees are $4.80, which is what Interactive Brokers charges. A real account should more realistically be funded with $15,000 or more.

The worst drawdown over the past year was $2500, during a 3 week congestion. This is something to be improved. These drawdown periods contain some very interesting information. They come during the congest ions when the MoonTrend cycle is "rolling over slowly." These periods precede the big, chaotic, fast trend moves, which is where TideTrade2 makes its money. This suggests several future improvements to the system.